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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • I think many people learned the wrong lesson from GWB’s Iraq War. It was presented as (among other things) a way to stop an enemy of the USA from obtaining nuclear weapons and it was a mistake, so they conclude that using force to stop enemies of the USA from obtaining nuclear weapons is a mistake. However, using force (if necessary) to stop enemies of the USA from obtaining nuclear weapons is a prudent idea and the problem with that Iraq War was that it was not actually fought for that purpose. GWB was the boy who cried wolf but real wolves still exist.



  • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.workstoMicroblog Memes@lemmy.worldSwing voters
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    5 days ago

    The problem with democracy is that you can’t get very far just by telling the voters how they ought to behave. I’m happy that I’m not a politician, because after the last election I don’t respect the majority of American voters. Trying to win their support would be demeaning. However, someone is going to do it, and if he isn’t a Democrat who does care (or acts like he cares) about people like Steve in Wisconsin, he’ll be a Republican instead.



  • I had a dream once in which an ex-girlfriend from years ago who I was still in love with appeared and told me that I would never have her back so I should stop being so obsessed with her. Good advice, perhaps, but not what I feel I deserve in my own dreams…

    Now that I think about it, I realize that I can’t remember ever having sex in a dream. So much for dreams as wish fulfillment.



  • Serious answer:

    That’s cool. What makes it special?

    Sometimes people talk about how expensive something they own is simply because they’re proud that they could afford it and even when they’re being tone-deaf, there’s no benefit to getting offended when you could just move the conversation along instead. (Although you might have to listen to them talk about watches.) If they were trying to brag, now they’re stuck trying to explain why the watch is actually worth what they paid and you’re the one judging them.

    Cars (and watches) aren’t so expensive that a middle-class person can’t plausibly already own the one he would buy even if money was unlimited. You can act like that’s true about you. My status-conscious former mother in law was bothered by the fact that I owned an old car, but when she would bring it up I would just say “I really like the 2008 model.” She couldn’t argue with that.


  • How can the war realistically end?

    1. A return to the pre-war status quo. The withdrawal of Israeli troops, presumably in return for the hostages, with either Hamas or another group equally hostile to Israel in control of Gaza. This is the worst-case scenario for Israel, because it represents a total failure to eliminate the source of more potential October 7 attacks. I suspect it’s the worst-case scenario for Gaza too, since future attacks on Israel would lead to future destruction in Gaza.

    2. The destruction of Hamas and the establishment of a Gazan government friendly towards Israel, perhaps by the Palestinian authority or a coalition of Arab states. Very difficult and failure-prone, but a pathway to peace in the long term. I had hoped that this would be the outcome when the war started but it isn’t what Netanyahu is trying to accomplish and by now I’m not sure there’s enough goodwill left for it to still be possible.

    3. Permanent Israeli occupation. I don’t think Israel can maintain such an occupation - it would be extremely expensive in money, lives, and international goodwill. Netanyahu and his supporters seem to think that Israel can, but many of them seem to make plans reliant on divine intervention.

    4. Expulsion of the population of Gaza. Egypt wouldn’t accept that without a war. Maybe Trump thinks he can find another country that would, but even if he did (unlikely) then the logistics of moving two million people would be extremely challenging. I think this outcome is effectively impossible - another one of the “divine intervention required” plans. However, it would be a best-case scenario for Israel. The gain in territory means little, but no longer having Gazans as neighbors immediately ends the conflict for good, which no other outcome does.

    If (2) isn’t going to happen then (4) may be the best case scenario for everyone. Even the people being expelled and their descendants would probably be better off than they would be if they remain in Gaza for for many more decades of conflict. However, I very much doubt that it can happen.