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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • Iran really does not have a choice. They can not seriously attack Israel. Their missile launchers seem to be destroyed and they hit very little. Air force is not an option either. Hamaz is at war already, Hezbollah has been bombed hard and can hardly fight, much less supplied.

    They could bomb some US military installations, but best case they kill some Americans.

    Blocking the Persian Golf would fail as well and piss of pretty much the rest of the world.

    So ending it is a good option.


  • Nope, right wing bullshit repackaged to be attractive to young men, who want sex. Basically the idea is to naturalize hierachy in male groups, while at the same time isolating them socialy. When you try to dominate others, they usually do not like that and lets be clear most guys want to be the dominant kind in that kind of system. The funny part being that women also usually do not like it. There is a reason half the influencers in these sort of communities end up having to pay for women or just rape.





  • Also closing it means Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have a massive shipping problem, which would really threaten those countries in such a massive way, that it could be seen as an attack on them. Not to mention that oil is shipped to countries all around the world. Basically everybody who is not an oil exporter is going to hate them for doing it.

    Also Iran needs to ship oil via the straight as well. Starting some conflict around it, would really hurt their income.






  • The tools are roughly the same, however the key difference is the position. With the fall of the Soviet Union Russia became nearly a regional power, which is trying to become a great power and hopes to be a super power again. The US ended up being the remaining super power and mostly controlled the world. So the US does not have a massive plan for world domination, because it already is pretty much in that position.

    You can see that with China. The US was very interested of integrating China in its global economic system. However now it is starting to take over, so we see trade wars and things like the Muslims.

    Similar situation in the Middle East. The US used to import a lot of oil, so low oil prices were important. At the same time oil is traded in dollars, which as everybody needs oil, creates a lot of demand for the dollar. The US can just print more, which is pretty much free money. However the Middle East is the clear main source of oil, so to make sure those countries do not sell in another currency, the US has to show strength. Hence taking out Iraq. Nowadays the US is an oil exporter. So it is much happier to take out the competition. That happened in Venezuela, Russia and now Iran. Keeps up the oil price, which helps the US economy.

    However those are all reactions to events, rather then some grand strategy. The US just wants to keep its position in the world.









  • Never said that Trump supporters would switch sites. I said that Vance is less popular, which means less likely to get as many people to activly vote for him.

    A power vacuum in Iran would have a good chance of ending the civil war in Sudan. So I believe the odds are pretty good,especially if it is a short one.

    Every Iraeli and Palestinian has experienced violence from the other site. Clearly Israel is occupying the West Bank and not the other was around, but it would be foolish of me to presume that the Israeli left loves Palestinians. Thankfully they do not need to, but just need to make a deal. Without shooting at each other relations will improve. Obviously the right is independent of Natanyahu, but current polls still show them loosing power.



  • There are actually some differences here. After the Cold War ended Israel was making some peace deals. The Oslo Accords(1993 and 1995) and a deal with Jordan 1994 were big parts of that. In 1996 Netanyahu came to power and basically all of that stopped. There was a bit with Ariel Sharon being in power, when Israel gave up its settlement in the Gaza strip. Netanyahu was not prime minister all the time, but he was in government and more often then not in position to sabotage that. The only time he failed was Ariel Sharon ordering to close the Jewish settlements in Gaza. He is really the main reason there is no somewhat working two state solution today.

    Trump currently sents billions of aid to Israel to commit genocide AND fight a war within Iran. So yes he is that president. Biden at least used the US military to send some food to Gaza, Trump stopped that.

    Khamenei is the leader of Iran since 1989. He is hardly innocent of supporting the Assad clan, destroying democracy in Lebanon by supporting Hezbollah, massive war crimes in Sudan happening right now, with the biggest starvation crisis in the world, although not as hard as Gaza, the huge civil war in Yemen and so forth. Keep in mind that before the Iranian revolution Israel and Iran were very close allies. They even developed fighter jets together. Point is that both countries are not natural enemies.

    At least two of those men have formed their respective countries and systems for decades. If you killed Netanyahu today, then it would mean a new election and likely a win for the liberals, which is usually good news for Palastinians. If you killed Khamenei today, then there is a pretty good chance, that the infighting would end the Islamic Republic. Iran has had some massive protests in the last couple years. If you kill Trump, then the Vance ends up president and he lacks the charisma of Trump and is not even directly elected.