I’m considering getting a clock for my kitchen

I have no clock in my apartment. To find out what time it is, I need to fire up one of my computers and look. Sometimes it’s the kindle

They aren’t bullshitting because the training data is based on reality. Reality bleeds through the training data into the model. The model is a reflection of reality.

I appreciate your telling the truth. No downvotes from me. See you at the loony bin, amigo.

Fair, but the same is true of me. I don’t actually “reason”; I just have a set of algorithms memorized by which I propose a pattern that seems like it might match the situation, then a different pattern by which I break the situation down into smaller components and then apply patterns to those components. I keep the process up for a while. If I find a “nasty logic error” pattern match at some point in the process, I “know” I’ve found a “flaw in the argument” or “bug in the design”.

But there’s no from-first-principles method by which I developed all these patterns; it’s just things that have survived the test of time when other patterns have failed me.

I don’t think people are underestimating the power of LLMs to think; I just think people are overestimating the power of humans to do anything other than language prediction and sensory pattern prediction.