Well it was based on survey responders, which has well known accuracy limitations. So, possibly there could be a factor of smoking becoming less socially acceptable so people less likely to admit to it — doesn’t seem likely to happen in just one state.
The legal ways of avoiding a vice tax are other states, native reservations, and military posts. Even if increased vice tax created large scale grey market, the evidence is the taxes or intervention did work.
People could also be getting thier cigarettes by other means.
Well it was based on survey responders, which has well known accuracy limitations. So, possibly there could be a factor of smoking becoming less socially acceptable so people less likely to admit to it — doesn’t seem likely to happen in just one state.
The legal ways of avoiding a vice tax are other states, native reservations, and military posts. Even if increased vice tax created large scale grey market, the evidence is the taxes or intervention did work.